Wednesday, 26 July 2023

Coin Flips

Most people misunderstand 50/50 chances. They assume that if there's a binary choice, unless they have explict reason to think one option is more likely, it's a 50/50. Either the thing happens or it doesn't. 50/50.


This is nonsense. Probability is rarely that neat, even a coin flip, arguably, isn't 50/50, most of the time.


But sometimes, by sheer luck, things can be 50/50. Which makes it all the harder when your life changes irrevocably because of it.


She wanted the front seat of the helicopter, and the chance of crashing face first?


50/50.

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